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Retail spending `could be tempered by debt`

22/03/2007

Strong February retail sales could be moderated throughout the year by financial factors such as debt, according to forecasting company Global Insight.

The firm was responding to government figures indicating that consumer retail spending bounced back last month after a fall in January.

Global Insight comments that the "volatility" of sales figures around Christmas have dissipated, leaving a retail market that is "still pretty solid".

However, there are other factors that may interfere with continued strength over the course of 2007, it cautions.

The company predicted that the recent base rate hike, the financial pressures of buying a home, as well as "an increasing tax burden and rising debt levels" would contribute to a cool in retail spending.

Additionally, it suggests that high levels of consumer expenditure could result in a further interest rate rise by the Bank of England.

Meanwhile, the Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index recently revealed that consumer confidence remained "low" in February.


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