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Mortgage debt: what will the base rate do on Thursday?

09/03/2009

People with tracker and Standard Variable Rate (SVR) mortgages will be eagerly waiting to see what the Bank of England`s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides on Thursday - and how this may affect the cost of servicing their mortgage debt.

This Thursday, 5th March, the MPC will announce whether it`s cutting the base rate even further, taking it down from its current (already unprecedented) 1%.

An article in The Telegraph looks at the `MPC-ometer`, which tries to predict the MPC`s decisions by looking at all kinds of factors, such as the growth of gross domestic product (GDP), business and consumer confidence, consumer price inflation, share prices, market interest rates and the exchange rate.

In the run-up to March`s decision, the MPC-ometer apparently predicts that the base rate will stay at 1%, making this the first month since last October that the rate hasn`t come down: in October, it dropped from 5% to 4.5%; in November, to 3%; in December, to 2%; in January, to 1.5% and in February it came down to the 1% mark, where it stands today - and where it may stay for at least one more month, if the MPC-ometer is correct.

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